Champion Data have crunched the numbers to see where each team is placed with 4 rounds to play.
North Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Carlton and Fremantle are so far the only sides that have no chance of making the 8 - while Adelaide is the only side that is a bona fide lock at this stage of the season.
The Bulldogs made the biggest move of the weekend, jumping up 14% with their win over Essendon to now sit a 52% chance of making finals.
Melbourne, on the other hand, suffered a 19% blow to slide down to 60%.
Collingwood, despite blowing a 50-point lead against Adelaide to draw on Sunday, remain the slimmest of mathematical chances with a rating of <1%.
Here is how everyone is poised: