We’re telling you there’s a chance.
St Kilda is well within the hunt and well within the realms of mathematical chance of September action for the first time under Alan Richardson.
So we got the calculators out.
Melbourne’s loss to Collingwood on Saturday sees them sit seventh, and likely eighth if Essendon can beat Fremantle and seal themselves a finals spot.
It means St Kilda can then sit level with eighth-placed Melbourne on premiership points with a win over Richmond.
But the win isn’t enough: their percentage of 98.9% isn’t quite enough to seal it, behind Melbourne’s 105.2%.
A win over Richmond won’t cut it: they need a big win.
Around 20 goals, in fact.
A 149-20, 160-40 or 170-50 win will see St Kilda’s percentage rise to 105.2% and fractionally ahead of Melbourne, and likely into eighth position.
It’s not completely impossible: the Saints sprung the Tigers just last month, kicking 14 goals to one at half time and at one point leading by 95 points during the third term, so it’s not a result we can rule out entirely.
That result will cost Richmond a double chance, too, and hand them a likely elimination final with Essendon.
Lastly, this all relies on West Coast not beating Adelaide by 21 points or more, as the Eagles' percentage is also within range and capable of jumping the Dees.
A big West Coast win might mean St Kilda's winning margin on Sunday has to be even greater.
How St Kilda can jump Melbourne and play finals
St Kilda 118 defeat Richmond 0
St Kilda 128 defeat Richmond 10
St Kilda 139 defeat Richmond 20
St Kilda 149 defeat Richmond 30
St Kilda 160 defeat Richmond 40
St Kilda 170 defeat Richmond 50
St Kilda 181 defeat Richmond 60
St Kilda 191 defeat Richmond 70
St Kilda 202 defeat Richmond 80
St Kilda 213 defeat Richmond 90
St Kilda 223 defeat Richmond 100