Triple M Footy Preview — Finals Week One

The Triple M Footy Preview is brought to you with our good mates at Crownbet. Each week, a member of the triplem.com.au team will look at the fixture and put their neck on the line with their call for the games of the round. With odds for each team thanks to Crownbet.

Keep up to date with the latest odds on all the weekend’s action at Crownbet.com.au.

Adelaide vs. GWS

One of the keys for GWS will be their forward pressure. They rank second last of all finalists for tackles inside 50 and are missing Devon Smith and Steve Johnson, who both rank top two at the club. They only laid four tackles inside 50 last time against Adelaide and it made things easy for Adelaide in the back half, with Rory Laird (40 disposals) the best of it. The Crows’ ball movement is already sensational, so the Giants need to rattle them and allow them absolutely nothing, like they did to Sydney in last year’s qualifying final.

But how do the Crows fare without Rory Sloane? His absence changes things significantly. Matt Crouch might currently be their best midfielder but Sloane is their most influential, and we’ve seen this year what happens when he gets tagged out and the midfielders behind him get exposed. Now he’s gone completely. This gives GWS a real shout.

Adelaide by 6

Crownbet odds:

Adelaide 1.55

GWS 2.50

Geelong vs. Richmond

Expect this game to be pretty tense. Richmond is one of the best defensive sides in the competition, conceding 90 points in a game just twice this year, both away from the MCG. They’re conceding just 70 points a game at the ‘G this year, too. And Geelong, since their round eight loss to Essendon, are conceding just 75 points a game, letting in 100 points just once. Both of these sides are top three defensively and, with a wet forecast, this one will be close.

An 'away' venue might strangely suit the Tigers here. Their record at the MCG is phenomenal, winning nine out of 11 games, with the other two losses to Sydney (9 points) and Fremantle (3 points) after the siren. The ground is nearly 30 metres wider than Geelong’s Kardinia Park, which will change things significantly from their round 21 clash. A loser has to deal with a likely semi final against Sydney, too, who’ve come up with wins against both of them this season.

Biggest game of the season? You bet.

Richmond by 9

Crownbet odds:

Geelong 1.76

Richmond 2.10

Sydney vs. Essendon

Sydney’s won 14 of their last 16, with two losses to Hawthorn…and what should have been a loss to Essendon. Imagine if the most in-form team in the competition gets knocked out by the Bombers?

Everything about Sydney suggests they should be good enough to win this one. From round seven onwards they’ve got the best offence (102.4 points per game), the best defence (66.1 points) and a percentage (154.9) miles above the rest. The Bombers have reason to smile, too. They’ll get All-Australian defender Michael Hurley back from his calf injury, while the influence of Orazio Fantasia’s speed up forward can’t be underestimated – just look at how less damaging they looked against Carlton a few weeks ago when he went down.

Both teams are superb starters, ranked third and second in the league respectively, so this game might boil down to the opening minutes. If Essendon can spring Sydney then it busts this game wide open.

Sydney by 19

Crownbet odds:

Sydney 1.19

Essendon 5.00

Port Adelaide vs. West Coast

This one could be a genuine hurdle for an impressive Port Adelaide side. West Coast has won five of six at Adelaide Oval, including all three against Port Adelaide there. Add that to Port’s record against top eight sides and there’s every reason to point to an upset for this one.

But that was a smash and grab for West Coast: Port Adelaide recorded more disposals, marks, inside 50s and scoring shots in that loss. They then went over to Perth in round 16 and beat them by 32 points anyway, despite trailing by four goals early on. Their midfield dominance was obvious again, a point where the Power have more strength through the influence of Ryder, Wines, Boak, Polec and Gray. There’s enough evidence here to suggest Port Adelaide, despite the hurdles, can get the job done here. It’ll have every chance of setting up a Showdown semi final – how huge would that be?

Port Adelaide by 24

Crownbet odds:

Port Adelaide 1.46

West Coast 2.80